One Thames Valley

Evidence

Every number, and where it comes from.

We use official statistics wherever they exist, mainly from the Office for National Statistics. Where we have combined published figures ourselves, we say so and show how.

Last updated 24 October 2026

Our source standards

  1. Official statistics first. Office for National Statistics, government departments and legislation.
  2. Independent research next. Established think tanks and rankings such as Centre for Cities and Times Higher Education.
  3. Organisations' own figures, such as a science campus describing itself, are labelled as theirs.
  4. Quotes link to the original statement, published by the council or government body that issued it.
  5. Our own calculations say so ("analysis of ONS data") and explain the method, so anyone can repeat them.

Check our sums

Our headline figures cover the whole region the councils have proposed. Official statistics are usually published for its parts, so we add them up ourselves. Here is how, so anyone can repeat it.

  1. Twelve councils. Berkshire's six (Bracknell Forest, Reading, Slough, West Berkshire, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham), Oxfordshire's five (Cherwell, Oxford, South Oxfordshire, Vale of White Horse, West Oxfordshire) and Swindon: 2.0 million people. This is the area in the councils' own proposal, not one we chose.
  2. How we add it up. Totals such as output, exports, jobs and tax are added together. Rates are rebuilt from the underlying counts: the employment rate is everyone in work divided by everyone of working age, never an average of percentages. Productivity is total output divided by total hours worked. Medians, such as pay and house prices, cannot be added up, so we never combine them.
  3. Swindon's 2024 figure. In September 2026 ONS temporarily withheld 2024 output figures for Swindon and parts of the South West while it corrects a geography error. Until it republishes, we estimate Swindon from its usual share of the South West's output, which ONS did publish: £14.6bn, within a range of £13.5bn to £15.7bn. Three other methods agree within 1%. This affects three figures (output per person, size and growth), and we will update them when ONS republishes.
  4. Double-checked. The region comes first outside London however we test it: anywhere in Swindon's range; on published 2023 figures alone, with no estimate (£53,414 per person); and on ONS's own nearest region, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire, which ranks first outside London for output per person and per job, and first in England outside London for output per hour.

The sources and method for each figure are below.

1

£56,000 output per person: more than any region of Britain outside London.

Area
Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Swindon (all twelve council areas).
Source
ONS, regional GDP by local authority, 2024 and 2023 editions; ONS, regional GDP by ITL region, 2024.
Method
GDP of the twelve council areas added together and divided by their population: £112.5bn and 2.0 million people in 2024, or £56,259 per person (analysis of ONS data). Berkshire and Oxfordshire are official ONS figures (£97.8bn). ONS has temporarily withheld Swindon's 2024 figure while it corrects a geography error, so we estimate it from Swindon's share of the South West's output (6.6% in 2023) applied to the South West's published 2024 total: £14.6bn, with a range of £13.5bn to £15.7bn. Three other methods give results within 1%. Every value in that range keeps the region first outside London.
Check
On published figures alone, with no estimate, the twelve councils produced £53,414 per person in 2023, again first of all UK regions outside London (next: Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire, £50,367). UK average 2024: £41,627; Greater Manchester £38,059. We will replace the estimate when ONS republishes Swindon.
2

Output per hour 21% above the UK average: more than any region of England outside London.

Area
Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Swindon.
Source
ONS, subregional productivity, 2023.
Method
The region is exactly four ONS areas: Oxfordshire, Berkshire East, Berkshire West and Swindon. Their output per hour is weighted by hours worked (36.1 million a week): £50.64 an hour against £41.87 for the UK, an index of 120.9 where the UK is 100 (analysis of ONS data, using the smoothed series ONS uses for its headlines). The highest of the 31 English regions outside London is Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire at 113.8. Greater Manchester 95.
Per job
Output per filled job, weighted the same way, is 24% above the UK average (index 124.4): the highest of any UK region outside London.
3

A £112bn economy: bigger than Wales, and almost Greater Manchester's size with two-thirds of the people.

Area
Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Swindon.
Source
ONS, regional GDP, 2024; ONS mid-2025 population estimates.
Figures
Thames Valley £112.5bn in 2024 (range £111.3bn to £113.6bn; Swindon estimated as in evidence 1). Wales £100.3bn; Greater Manchester £114.5bn. Population: Thames Valley 2.01 million, Greater Manchester 3.02 million (mid-2025).
4

£32bn of exports a year: 40% more than Greater Manchester.

Area
Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Swindon.
Source
ONS, subnational trade, 2023.
Figures
Oxfordshire £10.5bn, Berkshire East £9.3bn, Berkshire West £9.2bn and Swindon £3.3bn: £32.2bn in total, two-thirds of it services. That is £16,350 per resident, against £12,650 for the UK. Greater Manchester £22.5bn (analysis of ONS data).
5

+24% real growth in a decade: faster than London, and over half as fast again as the UK.

Area
Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Swindon.
Source
ONS, regional GDP by local authority, 2014–2024; ONS, regional GDP by ITL region, 2014–2024.
Method
Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP, 2014 to 2024. Berkshire and Oxfordshire: +25.6%, from ONS chained volume figures. Swindon: +11.3% to 2023 (official), plus the South West's growth for 2024. Combined, weighted by each area's 2014 output: +24% (analysis of ONS data). Any assumption for Swindon's final year between −3% and +3% gives 23% to 24%. UK +15.1%; London +16.2%. On published figures alone, the twelve councils grew +24.6% over 2013 to 2023, against +16.5% for the UK.
6

One in five of England's scientific research jobs outside London are here.

Area
Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Swindon.
Source
ONS Business Register and Employment Survey, 2024 (via Nomis).
Method
Scientific research and development jobs (industry code 72): 26,450, or 21% of England's total outside London (125,000). The region has 4.8% of all England's jobs outside London, so research jobs are more than four times over-represented (analysis of ONS data).
7

£10.7bn of income tax paid by residents each year: more than all of Wales.

Area
Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Swindon.
Source
HM Revenue & Customs, income and tax by local authority (Table 3.14), tax year 2023 to 2024.
Figures
Oxfordshire £4,220m, Windsor and Maidenhead £1,440m, Wokingham £1,360m, West Berkshire £1,020m, Reading £770m, Swindon £752m, Bracknell Forest £693m, Slough £468m: £10,723m in total, or £5,400 per resident, 37% above the UK average. Wales £7,490m; Greater Manchester £7,890m (analysis of HMRC data). The region has 2.9% of the UK's people and pays 3.9% of its income tax.
9

Harwell and Culham: national labs, fusion and Britain's first AI Growth Zone.

Sources
UK government, Government fires starting gun on AI Growth Zones, 10 February 2025: "the first of these AI Growth Zones will be based in Culham, Oxfordshire". Harwell Campus, end of 2025 (the campus's own figures: more than 250 organisations and 7,000 people).
10

A £9bn digital economy around Reading.

Area
Reading, Wokingham and West Berkshire.
Source
ONS, regional GVA by industry, 2024.
Figures
Information and communication: £9.1bn, 27% of local output, more than four times its share of the UK economy (analysis of ONS data).
12

Swindon: more output per job than anywhere in Britain outside London.

Source
ONS, subregional productivity, 2023.
Method
Output per filled job of £101,323: first of 161 UK areas outside London (analysis of ONS data). Swindon's output per hour is 48% above the UK average.
13

Backers' quotes.

Fahnbulleh
"The economic case is made": Miatta Fahnbulleh MP, Minister for Devolution, Faith and Communities, at a meeting on 10 March 2026, as recorded in the Thames Valley leaders' letter to ministers, 20 March 2026, page 1.
Caliskan
"Game changing for growth": Nesil Caliskan MP, letter to council leaders, 16 June 2026, quoted in Swindon Borough Council's statement of 19 June 2026.
Brown
Cllr Susan Brown, Leader of Oxford City Council, in a joint statement of Thames Valley council leaders, 12 February 2026.
Robbins
Cllr Jim Robbins, then Leader of Swindon Borough Council: Swindon Borough Council, 4 December 2025.
Sumner, Lovell
Cllr Gary Sumner, Leader of Swindon Borough Council, and Colin Lovell, Deputy Leader of Reform UK Swindon: Swindon Borough Council's statement of 19 June 2026.
15

A mayor by 2028, as the councils have proposed.

Source
Cllr Liz Leffman (for the Oxfordshire Leaders) and Cllr Dexter Smith (for the Berkshire Prosperity Board), Expression of Interest for a Thames Valley Strategic Authority, letter to ministers, 20 March 2026, page 1: "a compelling case for a Mayoral Strategic Authority (MSA) and electing a Mayor in 2028", and "aspirations for an election of a Mayor in May 2028, if that is considered to be achievable".
Status
This is the councils' proposal, not a government timetable. Reading Borough Council's devolution page (updated 22 October 2026) describes the ambition as "by 2028, subject to agreeing a geography". See the FAQ for what has to happen first.

Map cards

M5

West Oxfordshire: lowest economic inactivity in Great Britain.

Sources
7.3%, first of 346 council areas, July 2025 to June 2026 (analysis of ONS data): ONS Annual Population Survey.
M6

Reading: #2 for household income; pay level with London.

Sources
Centre for Cities, Cities Outlook 2026 (gross disposable household income per head, second of 63 cities). Median full-time workplace pay £954.40 a week against £958.20 in London: ONS ASHE 2025.
M7

West Berkshire: the fastest growth in the UK.

Area
Reading, Wokingham and West Berkshire (the ONS "Berkshire West" area).
Sources
ONS, regional GVA, 2014–2024; ONS, regional GDP, 2014–2024.
Method
Real output +65% against +16% for the UK. Real output per person +45%, the fastest of 156 UK areas with published data (analysis of ONS data).
M8

Wokingham: least deprived council area in England; resident pay second highest outside London.

Sources
153rd of 153 upper-tier authorities: MHCLG, English Indices of Deprivation 2025. Median full-time resident pay £953.70 a week, second of 262 English council areas outside London (analysis of ONS data): ONS ASHE 2025.
M9

Bracknell Forest: top 10% for high-growth businesses.

Sources
33rd of 361 UK council areas, 2024 (analysis of ONS data): ONS, high-growth businesses.
M10

Windsor and Maidenhead: residents out-earn London.

Sources
Median full-time resident pay £951.90 a week against £902.70 in London: ONS ASHE 2025.
B

Map boundaries.

Source
Office for National Statistics, Local Authority Districts (December 2025), licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database right 2025. River, road and rail lines are schematic.